Stars & Stripes

With a little bit of extra time on my hands and no groundbreaking racing bombshells to share (the next will be the first!), I thought I would dig into the Independence Day feature at my stomping grounds, Arlington Park -- The Grade III Stars & Stripes Handicap. It appears on paper to be one of the better races we've had at Arlington so far this meet, with a very competitive group and about five legitimate contenders out of the nine who will enter the gate.

1. Ramazutti (Douglas, 4/1 ML) will break from the inside coming off a quartet of dissappointing efforts. The only win on this one's page came in a very strangely run edition of the Mac Diarmida at Gulfstream. I blogged about that odd race on these pages after supporting Gin and Sin in there and revisiting it before that one ran back. I thought that race fell into his lap after unfolding in a way that was not entirely predictable on paper. I feel like his natural speed gives him his only shot at stealing this one as it looks like the majority of these want to be closing from off the pace and Ramazutti could set a fair enough pace to stick around for a piece. While it's been hard at this meet to go against a Pletcher/Douglas charge, there should be sufficient alternatives in here. I wouldn't want to be caught with this one completely off of my exotic tickets, but as far as the trophy goes, I'd keep my eyes trained elsewhere. Factor in the amount of money he will take strictly off of those top connections, and we're looking at a horse who should turn in a decent, but non-threatening, effort at underlaid odds.

2. Come On Jazz (Emigh, 10/1) is set to make just his second start of the year, the first having been an in the money finish in an overnight stake at a mile on this same grass course just a day more than a month ago. This is a horse who has rarely jumped up to run the kind of race that it would take to clearly win this one, but doesn't look entirely hopeless off of a respectable return effort. His trainer, Brian Williamson, has proven more than capable of getting his horses to move up in their second start off of a layoff, and even moderate improvement could make this horse a serious contender at a nice price tomorrow. It might take a career best for him to hit the wire first, though he did take the place money in this same event a year ago at odds of 16/1. He's an intruiging price play with the expected step forward now that the rust has been shaken off.

3. Swagger Stick (Campbell, 20/1) ships in from Pimlico after having been drubbed by allowance/optional claiming foes in all three of his starts this year off of the nearly two year layoff. It's tough to dismiss anything that a trainer like Graham Motion sends to Arlington, especially for a turf event, but it's going to take a monstrous step forward and several misfires for this one to even have a chance to grab a check. He ran third in this race two years back in what may have been his career best performance before heading to the shelf. I don't see how this one could have taken this race even at his best form from 2005, and if his recent races are any indication, he seems to have lost several steps and just doesn't look like the same animal anymore. He looks more like an inclusion for bettors inclined to use the "ALL" button than he does an inclusion for anyone looking to handicap this race on paper. Big pass.

4. Cloudy's Knight (Zimmerman, 9/2) is, depending on what numbers you use, the fastest horse on the grass in this heat. While he only shows two wins in the last two years (one on this turf course), he hasn't been beaten by more than a length and three-quarters in any of his eight losses in that span. In that regard, he's a tough pill to swallow. His best turf performances are superior to any other horse in here, and he couldn't have looked any better winning the Fair Grounds Breeders' Cup Handicap this February, but there is something to be desired from a horse who gets so close so often and only takes the check a quarter of the time. With those reservations publically aired, this one looks like the one to beat in my eyes. With the high power connections here, this one could get slightly overlooked. I find it hard to believe that he will be bet down below his morning line, and anything above that 9/2 line sure looks like a gift on the win end of things.

5. Mining For Silver (Graham, 20/1) appears to be another outsider, albeit one in pretty darn good form. This is going to be a huge acid test as far as class goes for this guy who was seen running for a 25K tag just four starts back. He's certainly stepped it up in two grass starts and a venture to Woodbine, but he hasn't been facing horses like these. If he can handle the class rise, his best on paper looks just about good enough to snag a slice at fat odds and potentially blow the exotics through the roof. That class question is certainly a tricky read for this guy, but Becky Maker is an astute horsewoman and it looks like she thinks this one is worthy of at least facing that class test. He may end up on the very bottom of a few of my tickets, but seems like a bit of a stretch for the top two spots.

6. Stream Cat (Leparoux, 7/2) looks like the big question mark. He's coming off of two very quick races over the Polytrack at Keeneland and would undoubtedly be the prohibitive one to beat if the predicted rains wash this one onto the carpet. He's a three-time winner on the green stuff but two of those came during his three year old season, and he looks like a different horse since he returned this year having taken down an allowance race and just missed by a neck in a stakes try in his last. The big question for every handicapper is going to be whether his recent form can translate to the turf. If his two races so far in his four year old season are any indication, he really seems to have turned a corner. If he runs one of those races tomorrow, he's going to be extremely tough to beat under the wire. In picking this race apart, I'm going to take the contrarian view of his first two races of this year. I think they were both gutsy performances that showed a much improved horse from his three year old season, but I'm willing to let him prove to me that he can bring those same races back with him on the grass to take this one. The price should be small, and this one deserves inclusion on almost every exotic ticket, but I'll take the gamble on his returning a turf monster too this year.

7. Always First (Albarado, 3/1) is one I would not be surprised to see favored when the gates open. He's been an incredibly consistent type over the past few years, and he returned from an extended vacation to finish a fast-closing runner-up in each of his 2007 starts. He's got the profile to take a race like this, and looks like one of the very obvious threats in a contentious field. He's got a hot jock in Albarado, and his past performances really just make wagering on him come down to whether or not you think he can get there in time. He's consistently gaining ground at the end of these marathon races, but does have a knack (much like Cloudy's Knight) for settling for small scores instead of taking the cake. An absolutely legitimate and serious threat to take this Grade III event, and he's one that I won't be taking lightly tomorrow.

8. Major Rhythm (Fires, 12/1), the $73.40 upset winner of this race last year, enters this year looking like a similar longshot play again. He doesn't have the resumé of some of the others, but generally gives a good account of himself when the money is on the line. He's coming out of a fifth place finish at Lone Star, beaten less than four lengths for it all and he looks to be rounding into form coming into the third start off of a winter freshening. He's the type of horse who can win a race like this with the right setup, and he might get that tomorrow. He's got enough pace to track Ramazutti and Come on Jazz in the early stages and may benefit from getting the first jump on the rail horse should that one tire. Whether that will be good enough to hold off the closers remains to be seen, but he's a viable exotics candidate even though he may once again look a bit of a stretch to add another notch to his win belt.

9. Fantastic Spain (Blanc, 6/1) ships in from the West Coast with a bit of a checkered set of running lines so far this year. He didn't have enough in his first two starts of the season to conquer allowance foes, but then came back to score a highly impressive victory in the Golden Gate Fields Stakes. He was racing without room for a good part of the final eighth of a mile and once clear, overcame yet another check to gut out a neck victory. It's tough to know what to make of this runner coming in off of those three races. His one victory this year did come at a distance just an eighth of a mile shorter than this while his two losses were at more conventional California turf distances. He's certainly got a late gear that should be good enough to get him into contention by the eighth pole but I'm not sure it will be enough to motor past all of the rest. If he runs back to his last race, he's a legit contender, and I wouldn't be completely shocked to see him get his picture taken tomorrow. While he may not be the easiest one to see winning, he's certainly one of the ones to keep an eye on rounding the far turn. He's quick enough on his best day and is undoubtedly yet another contender in this bunch.

Synopsis: Ramazutti should be able to have it all his own way up front, and with a clean break, his connections should be without excuses should be come up empty in the stretch. The pace doesn't figure to be blazing, but we will likely see Come on Jazz and Major Rhythm applying a wee bit of early pressure on the Pletcher runner. Cloudy's Knight should be motoring fastest of them all late and will be joined from the back by Always First and Fantastic Spain. In what seems like a wide open wagering race, Mining For Silver even figures in some ways -- perhaps he's just getting good at the right time. Swagger Stick looks like the only easy toss, and Stream Cat could run off with the whole thing if it turns out that he's simply a better horse this year than he was last year.

Selections:

1. Cloudy's Knight     2. Come On Jazz     3. Always First     4. Major Rhythm